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Table 1 What do forecast categories mean?

Object	Question	Do not infer
Forecast category	What state does this opportunity satisfy at the cutoff?	A universal close probability
Forecast probability	What probability is assigned under a named calibration rule?	That the category name supplies calibration
Forecast inclusion	Which states enter a roll-up?	That inclusion equals likelihood
Closed outcome	What commercial result was recorded?	That a closed result is a forecast category

Sinan Isoglu isoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01.png

Table Table 1 Revenue operations & AI 6 September 2026

What do forecast categories mean?

From What are forecast categories? Names need stable decision rules

Source Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.

Filenameisoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01.png

ID	Category at cutoff	Entry evidence	Roll-up rule	Exit or review	Later outcome
F-01	Pipeline	Problem recorded; buying path not yet evidenced	Pipeline only	Promote, hold, or omit at next review	Unobserved
F-02	Best Case	Buyer next step and date recorded	Best Case under declared inclusion mask	Recheck date and owner	Slipped
F-03	Commit	Customer commitment evidence and close plan	Commit under declared scope	Escalate missing evidence	Lost
F-04	Closed	Contract or booked outcome recorded	Closed result, not a probability	Reconcile to source system	Won
F-05	Omitted	Stale, duplicate, or outside period	Excluded with reason code	Reopen only after rule passes	Canceled
F-06	Commit	Verbal signal with no dated next event	Held, not counted until rule passes	Demote or evidence the state	Open at horizon

Level	Example observation	What it can answer
Exposure	Content delivered or course assigned	Who had access?
Completion	Module finished or certification passed	Who completed the declared task?
Adoption	Tool or playbook used in a defined workflow	Who incorporated the capability?
Behavior	Discovery question, value proof, or next-step record observed	What changed in the work?
Outcome	Stage progression, opportunity quality, win, margin, or cycle	What happened later under the declared window?
Return	Incremental outcome relative to resource cost and comparison	Was the program worth the declared investment?

Field	Question	Typical evidence
Reference price	What comparison point will the buyer or seller use?	Prior paid price, alternative, list, or declared anchor
Floor	Which economic or strategic boundary may not be crossed?	Cost-to-serve, contribution, capacity, risk, or policy
Centre	Which point is the current working recommendation?	Value evidence, comparable terms, and authority
Ceiling	Which upper bound requires a different explanation or approval?	Buyer value, alternatives, fairness, and market context
Authority	Who may choose a point inside or outside the range?	Role, approval, expiry, and exception rule
Review	Which later evidence can revise the corridor?	Quote response, win-loss, realization, margin, or service outcome

Field	Declaration	Failure when it is hidden
Unit grain	User, account, workspace, or contract	Several users are counted as several commercial leads
Eligible population	Product plan, geography, lifecycle state, and entry event	Students, internal users, or excluded plans enter the denominator
Product signal	Observable event or event sequence	A vague activity score is treated as a buying signal
Qualification threshold	Binary rule, count, sequence, or minimum value	The rule changes after the result is observed
Window	Time from entry or signal start to qualification cutoff	Late activity is silently included in an earlier cohort
Exclusion	Bot, test, employee, student, duplicate, or disallowed plan	Ineligible activity inflates qualification
Handoff	Owner, acceptance rule, and response clock	PQL creation is mistaken for sales acceptance
Later outcome	Opportunity, no opportunity, canceled, or unresolved at a named horizon	Qualification is reported as revenue

ID	Eligibility and grain	Product evidence in 14 days	Threshold and handoff	Day-30 outcome
P-01	Eligible account; 3 users	5 reports and 2 invitations	Threshold met; sales accepted	Opportunity created
P-02	Eligible account; 1 user	5 reports	Threshold met; sales accepted	No opportunity
P-03	Eligible account; 4 users	2 reports and 4 invitations	Threshold not met; no handoff	No opportunity
P-04	Student plan; 3 users	11 reports	Excluded plan; no PQL	Excluded
P-05	Eligible account; 2 users	Admin login only	Threshold not met; no handoff	No opportunity
P-06	Eligible account; 3 users	6 reports on day 19	Late; outside 14-day window	Opportunity on day 45

Object	Entry condition	What it can say	What it cannot say alone
Activation	Declared first-value event	The unit reached an early value milestone	The unit wants to buy
PQL	Product threshold crossed	A product signal met a qualification rule	Intent, budget, authority, or revenue
MQL	Marketing rule crossed	A marketing-defined signal met a rule	Product value or sales acceptance
Opportunity	Opportunity record created	A commercial process entered a declared pipeline	Win, revenue, or causal value of the prior signal

Process object	Question it answers	Example record	Error when it is merged
Entry	Which entity or process instance is admitted?	Qualification accepted under a named rule	The funnel denominator includes records outside the motion
Stage decision	What evidence allows the process to move?	Customer need and decision path recorded	A populated label is treated as progress
Handoff	Who releases the work and who should receive it?	AE releases a proposal to legal	Assignment is treated as acceptance
Acceptance	Did the receiving owner acknowledge responsibility?	Legal accepts the contract-review packet	A sender update is treated as downstream completion
Exception or rework	What prevented the normal transition?	Missing counterparty returns the packet	The process is made to look shorter by overwriting the return
Outcome	What terminal or censored state was observed?	Won, lost, canceled, or open at day 30	An open case is silently counted as lost or complete

Field	Minimum evidence	Why it stays separate
Process key	Stable identifier joining the process instance across records or entities	Opportunity, quote, contract, and delivery rows can otherwise be counted as separate deals
Handoff type	Named transition such as marketing to SDR or AE to legal	Latency and acceptance are not comparable across every interface
Entry criteria	Rule or evidence that permits the handoff attempt	A task created in a queue is not proof that the process was eligible
Sender and release	Accountable sender, release event, and timestamp	A changed stage without a release event is not a complete handoff
Receiver and acceptance	Intended receiver, acceptance event, timestamp, or explicit non-acceptance	Ownership cannot be inferred from assignment alone
Evidence packet	Fields, document, event, or decision record required by the receiver	A fast acceptance of an empty packet is not a healthy transition
Latency clock	Start event, end event, timezone, and review window	A duration changes when the start or end event changes
Exception state	Missing evidence, capacity issue, conditional branch, or other reason	A returned transition should not disappear into a new owner or stage
Next event	Planned action, date, trigger, or explicit no-next-event state	A current stage does not show what keeps the process moving
Disposition	Accepted, held, returned, excluded, or open at horizon	Different unresolved states require different operating decisions

Boundary object	Declared rule
Observation date	2026-09-06
Process scope	Accepted qualification through a closed commercial outcome
Process grain	One commercial process instance for outcome analysis; one named handoff attempt for interface analysis
Entry event	Qualification accepted under the active commercial rule
Stage evidence	The evidence required by the receiving stage or owner
Handoff clock	Sender release timestamp to receiver acceptance timestamp
Review window	24 hours is illustrative, not a service-level benchmark
Terminal states	Won, lost, canceled, or open at the declared outcome horizon
Cross-record join	Stable process key, or a documented deterministic join rule

Handoff ID	Sending state and owner	Receiving state and owner	Entry evidence and acceptance	Latency	Exception	Next event and disposition
H-01	Marketing / MQL released	SDR / qualification accepted	ICP rule and account ID; accepted 2026-09-06 09:20	16 min	None	Discovery booked 2026-09-07; Accepted
H-02	SDR / qualified	AE / discovery accepted	Qualification notes; accepted 2026-09-02 09:00	20 h	Account context missing; returned to SDR	Add account and buying process by 2026-09-08; Returned
H-03	AE / discovery complete	Solutions / technical validation	Discovery brief; accepted 2026-09-03 15:00	6 h	None	Security workshop 2026-09-10; Accepted
H-04	AE / proposal ready	Legal / contract review	Proposal version 3; not accepted by 2026-09-06	48 h and open	Counterparty missing; held	Add legal entity by 2026-09-08; Held
H-05	Deal desk / commercial approval	Finance / approved quote	Pricing exception record; accepted 2026-09-05 13:00	4 h	None	Issue final quote 2026-09-09; Accepted
H-06	Closed-lost / terminal	Onboarding / delivery	No eligible entry event for this scope	Not applicable	Outside the declared process	None; Excluded

Object	Observable event	Question it answers	Error when it is merged
Cohort entry	Signup, paid start, contract start, or another declared entry event	Who is eligible to be counted?	Traffic or excluded records enter the denominator
Setup completion	Workspace created, integration connected, or checklist step completed	Did an implementation activity occur?	Setup is called customer value
Activation or first value	First report exported, first workflow completed, or another declared value event	Did the customer reach the first observable benefit?	A convenient click becomes a universal definition
Time to value	Entry timestamp to first-value timestamp	How long did the first value take?	An elapsed-time question is reduced to a percentage
Recurring usage	Repeated use or repeated value event over a later period	Did the capability become a habit or operating routine?	First value is treated as durable adoption
Retention or outcome	Renewal, cancellation, continued subscription, or another later endpoint	What happened at the declared horizon?	A later outcome is attributed to activation by default

Account	Eligible at entry	Observed action	Event day	Inside 14-day window?	Day-60 status
A-01	Yes	First report exported	4	Yes	Retained
A-02	Yes	First report exported	12	Yes	Retained
A-03	Yes	Workspace created only (setup)	Not reached	No	Retained
A-04	Yes	None / not reached	Not reached	No	Churned
A-05	Yes	First report exported	8	Yes	Churned
A-06	Yes	First report exported	19	No	Retained
A-07	Yes	Workspace created only (setup)	Not reached	No	Retained
A-08	Yes	First report exported	13	Yes	Retained

Pattern in the review	First question	Do not conclude yet
High rate from login or workspace creation	What customer value is observable after the setup event?	The product reached first value
Immature cohort includes recent entries	Has every denominator unit had the full observation window?	The current rate is a definitive cohort result
Event occurs after the stated window	Was the event late, missing, or assigned to another cohort?	The customer failed permanently
Rate rises after eligibility changes	Did the denominator become narrower or more committed?	The product improved
Users counted more than once	What is the unit grain and first-event rule?	Usage volume equals activated units
Activated units later retain	Was retention defined separately, and is there a credible comparison?	Activation caused retention
Onboarding and post-onboarding rates differ	Which stage and operating conditions generated the event?	One lifecycle rate applies everywhere

Object	Meaning	Required boundary
Demand target	Quantity, value, orders, usage, or another declared outcome	Unit, population, period, and exclusions
AI forecast	Model output available at a cutoff	Data, features, model version, horizon
Human review	Judgment or action after the baseline	Information, reason, signed change, owner
Final forecast	Number used for the next decision	Version, cutoff, unit, horizon
Actual	Later observation used for evaluation	Reconciliation, timing, missingness, loss

Gate part	Question	Example
Entry criteria	What must be true before the transition can be attempted?	Account, need, and decision path identified
Evidence packet	Which record or event proves the criteria?	Discovery note with timestamp and source
Acceptance event	What does the receiver acknowledge?	Solutions owner accepts the technical-validation request
Exit criteria	What makes the process eligible for the next state?	Security requirements documented and next workshop booked

Observed pattern	First question	Do not conclude yet
Stage count rises but the receiver has no acceptance event	Did the sender release a complete packet, and is the receiver's event captured?	That the process moved forward
Handoff latency is short but rework is high	What evidence did the receiver accept, and how often was the packet returned?	That the interface is efficient
Several records show the same deal at different states	What stable key or join rule links the records?	That the funnel contains several deals
One branch takes longer than the happy path	Which condition makes the branch eligible, and is it measured separately?	That the average cycle applies to every process
Final owner is visible but returns are absent	Are return events preserved or overwritten by reassignment?	That no rework occurred
Closed records appear in an active stage report	What are the scope and terminal-state rules?	That the pipeline is shrinking or expanding
Funnel counts change after required fields are added	Did the admission rule or denominator change?	That commercial performance changed

Field	Question it answers	What goes wrong when it is hidden
Booked revenue	What amount was recorded at order or contract?	Booking volume is confused with cash
Collected revenue	What amount was received by the cutoff?	Timing and credit risk disappear
Channel fee	What was paid to the intermediary or platform?	Revenue share looks like retained value
Discount or credit	Which concession reduced the collected amount?	Pocket price and channel comparison drift
Delivery and support	What variable service burden followed the route?	High-touch routes look artificially attractive
Incremental acquisition	What acquisition cost belongs to this route?	A channel inherits no cost and appears free
Conflict and coordination	What duplicated or displaced commercial work?	Concurrent routes are compared as if independent
Ownership and control	Who owns the customer, data, renewal, and exception?	Contribution is mistaken for relationship control

Route	Booked	Collected	Fee	Delivery and support	Incremental acquisition	Contribution	Ownership and decision
Direct	100	96	0	32	18	46	Supplier owns; retain route
Reseller	100	82	20	14	8	40	Shared; review renewal control
Marketplace	100	88	18	20	15	35	Platform controls data; test scope
Referral	100	70	10	38	27	-5	Supplier serves; stop or redesign

Question	Economic field	Separate control field
Does the route generate value now?	Contribution under the declared boundary	Cash cutoff and cost allocation
Can the route be repeated?	Variable service and acquisition burden	Capacity and partner governance
Who owns the relationship?	Not determined by contribution	Account, data, renewal, and exception rights
Does another route change the result?	Conflict or coordination cost	Comparable exposure and route assignment

Review question	What it tests	Common failure
Relevance	Is the source about the same topic or mechanism?	Topic match is treated as proof
Authority	Is the source appropriate for this kind of statement?	A respected source is treated as universal authority
Citation correctness	Does the link or reference identify the intended work?	A related work is cited by accident
Completeness	Are important contrary or qualifying sources missing?	One citation is presented as the whole literature
Entailment	Does this evidence support this exact proposition?	Scope, direction, or condition changes

ID	Claim sentence	Evidence sentence	Relation	Missing or changed field	Permitted wording
C-01	The intervention increased activation for all customers.	In the trial sample, activation was higher for eligible self-serve accounts.	Partial	Population and eligibility	“Activation was higher in the eligible trial sample.”
C-02	The workflow caused faster sales.	Teams using the workflow completed the measured stage sooner in the observed comparison.	Partial	Design and causal verb	“The observed comparison was associated with shorter stage time.”
C-03	The paper proves that the mechanism works.	The authors propose the mechanism and report evidence consistent with it.	Partial	Proof and alternative explanations	“The findings are consistent with the proposed mechanism.”
C-04	The effect was 20 percentage points.	The estimate was 20 points with a wide interval that includes smaller effects.	Partial	Uncertainty	“The point estimate was 20 points; uncertainty remains material.”
C-05	Citation distortion never changes decisions.	The bounded network study describes amplification and invention of authority.	Contradicts	Direction	“The study documents ways citation can amplify authority.”
C-06	The source supports a claim about German enterprise buyers.	The source studies a different population and setting.	No evidence	Population and context	“No support for the German enterprise claim from this source.”

Object	Declaration	Failure when it is hidden
Unit grain	Account, user, workspace, contract, or subscription	The numerator changes from accounts to users
Entry event	Signup, paid start, contract start, activation, or renewal	Cohorts mix different lifecycle origins
Cohort composition	Eligibility, plan, region, acquisition route, and exclusions	A composition shift looks like a product trend
Cohort age	Days or months since each unit's entry	Calendar time is mistaken for lifecycle time
Outcome	Active, retained, renewed, used, or paid under a rule	A proxy is called retention without a declared endpoint
Denominator	Eligible units at entry or another declared risk set	Units are silently added or removed after entry
Maturity rule	Minimum observation age for each reported point	Immature units are counted as failed outcomes

Method or view	Comparison clock	Primary question	Boundary
Calendar snapshot	Calendar date	What is the current state?	Does not align units by entry age
Cohort analysis	Time since entry	How does an age-relative outcome develop?	Descriptive unless a causal design is added
Activation rate	Fixed window after entry	Which units reached a declared first-value event?	Does not measure later survival alone
Experiment	Assignment and follow-up window	What changed relative to a counterfactual?	Needs treatment, control, exposure, and estimand

Object	Question it answers	What it owns	Error when it is merged
Governance	Who decides the rule, owner, access, exception, and review cadence?	Decision rights and control design	A cleanup task is mistaken for an operating system
Data quality	Does this field or record fit the declared decision?	Observed status against a rule	A single cleanliness score hides different failures
Hygiene	What maintenance action corrects, merges, enriches, or retires a record?	Work performed on the data	Work is treated as proof that the result is now valid
Adoption	Are people integrating the CRM tools and routines into selling work?	Use, knowledge, and behavior	A governed field is mistaken for a used process

Field in the quality register	Rule to declare	Evidence to preserve	Failure if hidden
Record grain	One contact, account, lead, opportunity, or another named unit	Object type and stable record ID	A count mixes units and double-counts entities
Field definition	What the field means and when it is populated	Data dictionary version and example states	Two teams use the same label for different facts
Data owner and steward	Who approves meaning and who handles daily quality	Named role, not only a team inbox	A defect has no accountable decision-maker
Requiredness	When the field is mandatory and when it is not applicable	Rule version and exclusion condition	A blank hides both omission and legitimate scope
Allowed values	Which values, formats, units, and currencies are valid	Validation rule and rejected-value log	A filled field is counted as valid without a test
Freshness	How recent the value must be for this decision	Last changed and last reviewed timestamps	A complete record survives after its evidence expires
Duplicate rule	Which identifier or combination makes records unique	Match key and merge decision	One customer appears as several pipeline entities
Data lineage	Where the value came from and what transformed it	Source, transformation, and destination	A number cannot be traced back to its input
Stage evidence	What observable event supports the current stage	Event ID, timestamp, or documented evidence	A label is treated as a commercial transition
Close-date rule	Which date boundary and movement rule apply	Current value, prior value, and change reason	A forecast movement is mistaken for new demand
Exception reason	Why a failed rule is temporarily treated differently	Reason, owner, expiry, and review date	The exception becomes a permanent hidden rule

ID	Record grain and field	Owner and rule	Observed test state	Exception and review	Dashboard disposition
Q-01	Opportunity / close date	Sales operations / required for open opportunities	Current; date falls inside declared review window	None	Admit
Q-02	Opportunity / stage evidence	Sales manager / open stage needs recent evidence	Stale; no recent evidence recorded	Owner assigned; review by 2026-09-13	Hold
Q-03	Account / account ID and domain	CRM administrator / unique match key	Duplicate candidate; two records map to one entity	Merge decision due 2026-09-12	Hold
Q-04	Lead / lead source	Marketing operations / required value from approved list	Invalid value; source is outside the allowed list	Mapping owner assigned; review by 2026-09-10	Hold
Q-05	Opportunity / amount and currency	Deal owner / numeric amount with declared currency	Valid and current; source lineage recorded	None	Admit
Q-06	Contact / consent status	Privacy steward / required for outreach, out of scope for revenue count	Not applicable to this revenue review	Excluded from this report; separate rule applies	Exclude from report

State	Meaning	Action
Pass	The field satisfies the rule for this decision	Admit, while preserving the evidence
Fail	The observed value violates the rule	Hold, correct, or route to the responsible owner
Unknown	The system cannot determine the state	Do not silently treat it as pass or fail
Not applicable	The rule does not apply at this grain or scope	Record the exclusion condition
Stale	The value was once usable but exceeds the freshness window	Revalidate before using it
Duplicate	More than one record may represent the same entity	Resolve the match before aggregation

Object	Question it answers	Minimum record
Provenance	Which entities, activities, and agents were involved?	Entity, activity, agent, relation, time
Data lineage	Which path and operation produced this field or result?	Input and output version, operation, key, timestamp, owner
Data quality	Does the resulting field fit the declared decision?	Rule, observed state, evidence, exception, disposition
Event history	Which business events occurred, and when?	Immutable event, subject, type, effective time, ingestion time

ID	Input object and version	Transformation	Key or grain	Output object	Validation and use
L-01	Event snapshot E-2026-08-31	Filter `event_type = qualified`	One event ID; unique check passed	Eligible-event table V1	Row count reconciled to snapshot; routing report
L-02	CRM account snapshot A-2026-08-31	Normalize country and segment	Account ID; duplicate check pending	Account-segment table V2	Held until duplicate review; territory view
L-03	Invoice lines I-2026-08-31	Join to product map P-17	Product key; many-to-one expected	Revenue-by-line table V3	Join cardinality passed; PVM bridge
L-04	Usage events U-2026-08-31	Aggregate by account and 14-day window	Account ID and window end	Activation cohort V1	Window cutoff recorded; activation analysis
L-05	Manual exception sheet X-2026-09-01	Add approved exclusion	Account ID; manual owner named	Admitted-cohort V2	Rule change logged; dashboard refresh
L-06	Late event file E-late-09-02	Backfill prior snapshot	Event ID; version supersedes V1	Reissued result V2	Prior result invalidated; review reopened

Object	What it records	What it does not establish
Provenance	Entities, activities, agents, relations, and timing	That every source or operation is correct
Data lineage	The applied route from an input version to a field or result	That the measure represents the intended construct
Source verification	Whether a cited document or record is actually held and identifiable	That the source supports every sentence drawn from it
Data quality	Whether a field or result passes a declared fitness rule	That the result is causal
Event capture	What happened, to which unit, and when	Why the event happened

ID	Entity	Activity	Agent	Relation and time	Downstream use
P-01	Source PDF S-17, retrieved 2026-08-31	Extract table 4	Research analyst	Used at retrieval time	Claim ledger
P-02	Extract E-17, version 1	Normalize units	Analysis notebook N-4	Derived from S-17	Working dataset
P-03	Account snapshot A-31	Join to E-17 by account ID	Scheduled pipeline	Associated at 2026-09-01 06:00	Cohort table
P-04	Cohort table C-2	Exclude duplicate IDs	Data steward	Activity recorded; reason retained	Review worksheet
P-05	Review worksheet W-9	Approve evidence sentence	Editor and source owner	Attributed to W-9 on 2026-09-02	Draft article
P-06	Draft article D-1	Publish or hold	Editorial process	Hold if source or relation is unresolved	Release decision

Dimension	Object that can change	Diagnostic question	Typical hidden substitution
X-validity	Population or unit	Who was in the source, and who is in the target?	Trial users become enterprise accounts
T-validity	Treatment or implementation	Is the target intervention the same treatment in the relevant sense?	An email sequence becomes a sales-led program
Y-validity	Outcome or measurement	Is the target outcome the same construct, event, and horizon?	First report exported becomes 90-day renewal
C-validity	Context or setting	Could geography, institution, channel, language, regulation, or time change the mechanism?	One market's operating conditions become another's

Decision	Source and target relationship	Evidence still needed	Honest result
Replication	Population, treatment, outcome, and context are intended to remain the same, with a new observation or sample	Repeat the source design and check whether the result recurs	The source result was reproduced or not reproduced
Transport	At least one target field is intentionally different	A bridge through target data, measured effect modifiers, designed variation, or a new target study	The target inference is supported, limited, or unresolved
Analogy	A product, market, or mechanism merely sounds similar	A matched comparison has not been supplied	A hypothesis or prior, not a transfer result

ID	Source or target object	Treatment and comparator	Outcome and window	Context	Changed field	Verdict
S-01	US self-serve SMB trial accounts	Email onboarding versus holdout	First report exported by day 14	US self-serve, synthetic source setting	None	Source result: +8 percentage points, illustrative only
R-01	New sample from the same US self-serve SMB target	Same email onboarding versus holdout	Same first-report event by day 14	Same source setting	None intended	Replication candidate; repeat the source design
T-01	US enterprise accounts	Same email onboarding versus holdout	Same first-report event by day 14	Same source setting	Population	Do not transport without target population evidence
T-02	Same US self-serve SMB accounts	Sales-led implementation versus holdout	Same first-report event by day 14	Same source setting	Treatment	New treatment question; source effect does not identify it
T-03	Same US self-serve SMB accounts	Same email onboarding versus holdout	90-day renewal	Same source setting	Outcome and time	New outcome question; activation result does not identify renewal
T-04	Same customer profile in a DACH operating context	Same email onboarding versus holdout	Same first-report event by day 14	Different regulatory and operating context	Context	Context bridge and target evidence required