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Same retention, different customer value
Retention is one input. It cannot stand in for the contribution stream.
| Illustrative cohort | Annual contribution | Annual survival | Expansion | What the first LTV read misses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 100 | 85% | Low | High survival can be attached to a low-margin service burden |
| B | 160 | 85% | Low | Same retention does not mean same contribution |
| C | 100 | 75% | High | Lower survival can coexist with valuable expansion among survivors |
| D | 160 | 75% | High | The forecast depends on whether expansion is observed before or after churn |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Author's illustrative worksheet. The values are examples to show sensitivity, not market benchmarks.
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