Table 2From “Customer lifetime value is a forecast, not a fact”
Same retention, different customer value
Retention is one input. It cannot stand in for the contribution stream.
Table 2Same retention, different customer value
| Illustrative cohort | Annual contribution | Annual survival | Expansion | What the first LTV read misses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 100 | 85% | Low | High survival can be attached to a low-margin service burden |
| B | 160 | 85% | Low | Same retention does not mean same contribution |
| C | 100 | 75% | High | Lower survival can coexist with valuable expansion among survivors |
| D | 160 | 75% | High | The forecast depends on whether expansion is observed before or after churn |
Swipe or scroll horizontally if the table is wider than your screen.
Source: Author's illustrative worksheet. The values are examples to show sensitivity, not market benchmarks.
From the essay
Growth that compounds
Customer lifetime value is a forecast, not a fact
Customer lifetime value is a discounted forecast of margin, survival and expansion. Make the assumptions visible before comparing customers or channels.
Read the essayThis exhibit belongs to an essay: the numbers live here, the argument lives there.
Cite or embed
Related exhibits
Table 1Table
The assumptions inside customer lifetime value
Customer lifetime value is a forecast, not a fact
Table 3Table
Customer lifetime value formula and calculation: what must be declared?
Customer lifetime value is a forecast, not a fact
Table 4Table
Customer lifetime value dashboard and checklist: what should a review record?
Customer lifetime value is a forecast, not a fact
Contact
Bring the question you're working on.
Research, a guest lecture, or a commercial question.