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Figure 1From “Evidence over anecdote: what a number has to survive.”

Three questions before a number enters the decision

A blank cell is a finding. Three blank cells mean the number cannot answer a magnitude question: decide on declared judgement, not on the number.

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Figure 1Three questions before a number enters the decision

A four-column worksheet for grading a number before it enters a decision: the number as it arrived, how many attempts stand behind it, whether the success metric was fixed before the result existed, and what the metric would show if the initiative had done nothing.The number, as it arrivedVerbatim, with its sourceand date.Out of how many?Attempts behind it: seenand unseen.Decided when?Metric fixed before orafter the result.Compared to what?What it would show ifnothing worked.A blank cell is a finding. Three blanks: the number answers an existence question at best: decide ondeclared judgement.

Source: Author's own worksheet.

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02.png

From the essay

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). Three questions before a number enters the decision [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Three questions before a number enters the decision}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {Evidence over anecdote: what a number has to survive.}}
}
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<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02.png" alt="Figure 1: Three questions before a number enters the decision" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Figure 1: Three questions before a number enters the decision. Source: Author&#39;s own worksheet. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-evidence-over-anecdote-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>

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