Figure Figure 2 Revenue operations & AI 10 August 2026

The line everyone quotes, drawn over seventeen quarters

Up 1.5 points from 2022, flat since mid-2024. The axis runs 60 to 80 rather than zero so a 1.5-point move is visible at all; the compression the debate predicts would leave this band entirely.

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Reference & Evidence

Source: Computed from the published panel with the code beside it: revenue-weighted quarterly gross margin across the 53-firm balanced panel, SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts, 2022Q1 to 2026Q1. The axis is truncated to 60–80 for a reason the deck states; at full scale the move disappears.

From the essay

What AI did to cost of goods sold is not visible in the line everyone quotes.

Two camps argue about AI and software margins from survey data. The audited filings agree with neither, and could not have settled it anyway.

This exhibit belongs to an essay: the numbers live here, the argument lives there.

Read the essay →

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Cite this exhibit

APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). The line everyone quotes, drawn over seventeen quarters [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{The line everyone quotes, drawn over seventeen quarters}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 2, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {What AI did to cost of goods sold is not visible in the line everyone quotes.}}
}

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<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02.png" alt="Figure 2: The line everyone quotes, drawn over seventeen quarters" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Figure 2: The line everyone quotes, drawn over seventeen quarters. Source: Computed from the published panel with the code beside it: revenue-weighted quarterly gross margin across the 53-firm balanced panel, SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts, 2022Q1 to 2026Q1. The axis is truncated to 60–80 for a reason the deck states; at full scale the move disappears.. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-ai-did-to-cost-of-goods-sold-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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