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Figure 1From “The European failure number nobody quotes”

European M&A failure rates by criterion

Failure rates across three objective criteria for European listed and private targets. Value destruction sits at roughly half on stock returns, drops to roughly one-third on operating cashflow, and is single-digit on divestments.

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Figure 1European M&A failure rates by criterion

A horizontal bar chart showing failure rates of 773 European acquisitions across three criteria. For listed targets: 2-year BHAR failure is 51.7%, operating EBITDA benchmark failure is 38.4%, and divestment is 7.2%. For private targets: 2-year BHAR failure is 50.5%, operating benchmark failure is 31.4%, and divestment is 3.2%. Across criteria, failure sits roughly between 38% and 53%.204060802-Yr Shareholder Wealth (BHAR) · Listed51.72-Yr Shareholder Wealth (BHAR) · Private50.5Operating Benchmark (EBITDA) · Listed38.4Operating Benchmark (EBITDA) · Private31.4Target Divestment · Listed7.2Target Divestment · Private3.2Transactions classified as failed (%)

Source: Craninckx & Huyghebaert (2011), Table 3: 773 European M&A transactions (1997–2006): 401 listed-acquirer/listed-target deals and 372 listed-acquirer/private-target deals. Shareholder wealth measured via 2-year BHAR against size/BTM/momentum controls; operating performance benchmarked via Gugler et al. (2003) model; divestments tracked in Zephyr.

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  • A CH11-C1 Sample A and Sample B, verbatim: "more than half (51.7%) of the transactions in Sample A destroyed shareholder value up to two years following deal completion", and in Sample B "50.5% of acquirers exhibit inferior stock performance"Craninckx & Huyghebaert (2011), Table 3
  • A CH11-C2 "approximately 38.4% of these M&As resulted in an abnormal operating performance decrease during that window" for listed targets; "31.4% of firms realize inferior operating performance" for private onesCraninckx & Huyghebaert (2011), Table 3
  • A CH11-C3 The divestment rate is the small one: "in only about 7.2% of the cases, the acquiring management decided to sell off a majority stake in the target after the deal was closed", against "about 3.2%" in the private-target sampleCraninckx & Huyghebaert (2011), Table 3
  • A CH11-C4 Across criteria, European M&A failure rates run "roughly between 38% and 53%" for listed targetsCraninckx & Huyghebaert (2011), section 5

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). European M&A failure rates by criterion [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{European M\&A failure rates by criterion}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {The European failure number nobody quotes}}
}
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<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02.png" alt="Figure 1: European M&amp;A failure rates by criterion" width="3200" height="2400">
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  <figcaption>Figure 1: European M&amp;A failure rates by criterion. Source: Craninckx &amp; Huyghebaert (2011), Table 3: 773 European M&amp;A transactions (1997–2006): 401 listed-acquirer/listed-target deals and 372 listed-acquirer/private-target deals. Shareholder wealth measured via 2-year BHAR against size/BTM/momentum controls; operating performance benchmarked via Gugler et al. (2003) model; divestments tracked in Zephyr. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-european-number-nobody-quotes-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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