← Every exhibit

Figure 1From “Pipeline coverage hides a conversion distribution”

Equal coverage, different expected value

Both synthetic pipelines show 4x coverage. The expected values differ only because the declared conversion assumptions differ. The model is not a company forecast.

Cite Embed

Figure 1Equal coverage, different expected value

A horizontal bar chart of two synthetic pipelines with equal 4x coverage. The late-state mix has an assumed 20 percent probability and expected value of 80 target units. The early-state mix has an assumed 5 percent probability and expected value of 20 target units. These are illustrative model outputs.204060801004x coverage, late-state mix, p = 20%80 target units4x coverage, early-state mix, p = 5%20 target unitsIllustrative expected value, target = 100

Source: Author-generated transparent model. Target = 100 units; pipeline value = 400 units in both cases; Pipeline A probability = 20%; Pipeline B probability = 5%; expected value = pipeline value multiplied by probability. Values are illustrative, not a market benchmark.

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01.png

From the essay

Cite or embed

APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). Equal coverage, different expected value [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Equal coverage, different expected value}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01/},
  note = {From the essay {Pipeline coverage hides a conversion distribution}}
}
Embed this exhibit

Copy this HTML to use the PNG exhibit on your site with its source line and a link back to the exhibit page.

<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01.png" alt="Figure 1: Equal coverage, different expected value" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Figure 1: Equal coverage, different expected value. Source: Author-generated transparent model. Target = 100 units; pipeline value = 400 units in both cases; Pipeline A probability = 20%; Pipeline B probability = 5%; expected value = pipeline value multiplied by probability. Values are illustrative, not a market benchmark. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-pipeline-coverage-hides-conversion-distribution-fig01/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>

Related exhibits

Figure 2Figure

The denominator sensitivity of sales velocity

Pipeline coverage hides a conversion distribution

Figure 2Figure

Five numbers, five questions

What is sales forecasting?

Figure 1Figure

The synthetic forecast-override audit

What is a forecast override? Judgment is an intervention in the data

Every exhibit

Contact

Bring the question you're working on.

Research, a guest lecture, or a commercial question.