Turning a hunch into a forecast.
Competitor and trend tracking paired with financial modelling that turned a hunch into a revenue forecast: the analysis that made a bet an informed decision.
The topic mark
Market intelligence
What it covers
Intelligence was only worth gathering when it changed a decision. Competitor and trend tracking fed one thing: a model that tested what a move was worth before anyone committed. The discipline was discarding signals that were interesting but decision-irrelevant, which was most of them.
The diagnostic
Before adding a signal, name the decision it could change and the threshold that would change it. If neither can be stated, it is a subscription, not intelligence. Most tracking survives because cancelling it feels like losing information, which is the same reason it was never read.
Four moves, in order.
- 1
Watching the few real signals
Competitors, pricing, demand shifts: the handful that actually moved a decision.
- 2
Modelling the money
Turning the signal into a revenue and cost picture someone could argue with.
- 3
Stress-testing the bet
What had to be true for it to work, and what would break it.
- 4
Making the call
Translating it into a recommendation, with the uncertainty left in.
Essays
Further reading.
- 16 Aug 2026 Growth that compounds The incrementality illusion 16 min
- 1 Aug 2026 From the research bench Evidence over anecdote: what a number has to survive. 13 min
- 28 Jul 2026 From the research bench A vendor page supplied one tested source path for the 5x retention rule 9 min
- 27 Jul 2026 From the research bench What peer review deleted, the web kept. 12 min
The question that remained
Discarding decision-irrelevant signal turned into a harder discipline: checking whether the number everyone repeats was ever measured at all. Several had not been.
Contact
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