Table 27 Aug 2026From “The integration plan spends what the deal bought.”

The measurement, and the traps it must survive

Four steps that make the exposed-versus-untouched split mean something: an exposure tag set before close, no revenue ranking, a placebo split that must come back quiet, and enough accounts that the answer is not noise.

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Table 2The measurement, and the traps it must survive

Step	What it guards against	What the seeded simulation shows
Tag integration exposure per account, before close	Without the tag, any later comparison is folklore	Not a field in any system; an afternoon to reconstruct
Never rank on pre-close revenue	Regression to the mean, read as damage	The top decile of 400 accounts reads −15.1 pp with no effect present, in 73% of runs
Run the placebo split first	A measurement that alarms on random halves	Random halves recover the true noise floor at every spread tested (0.20, 0.45, 0.80)
Respect the base-size floor	Twenty-point swings that mean nothing	95% noise range: −33.1/+34.2 pp at 100 accounts, −24.2/+24.4 at 200

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Source: integration-exposure-null.py: 400 accounts, 2,000 trials, seed 20260807; published beside the pair's claim ledger and reproduces bit for bit. Author's own design; the simulated numbers are the null, not a finding about any deal.

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From the essay

Go-to-market strategy

The integration plan spends what the deal bought.

Integration depth buys cost savings by spending market position. The measured record prices that trade, and says its sign is not fixed.

7 Aug 2026

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). The measurement, and the traps it must survive [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig03/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig03,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{The measurement, and the traps it must survive}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 2, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig03/},
  note = {From the essay {The integration plan spends what the deal bought.}}
}

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