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Table 1From “What are forecast categories? Names need stable decision rules”

What do forecast categories mean?

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Table 1What do forecast categories mean?

ObjectQuestionDo not infer
Forecast categoryWhat state does this opportunity satisfy at the cutoff?A universal close probability
Forecast probabilityWhat probability is assigned under a named calibration rule?That the category name supplies calibration
Forecast inclusionWhich states enter a roll-up?That inclusion equals likelihood
Closed outcomeWhat commercial result was recorded?That a closed result is a forecast category

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Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). What do forecast categories mean? [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{What do forecast categories mean?}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01/},
  note = {From the essay {What are forecast categories? Names need stable decision rules}}
}
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  <figcaption>Table 1: What do forecast categories mean?. Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-are-forecast-categories-fig01/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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