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What do forecast categories mean?
| Object | Question | Do not infer |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast category | What state does this opportunity satisfy at the cutoff? | A universal close probability |
| Forecast probability | What probability is assigned under a named calibration rule? | That the category name supplies calibration |
| Forecast inclusion | Which states enter a roll-up? | That inclusion equals likelihood |
| Closed outcome | What commercial result was recorded? | That a closed result is a forecast category |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
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