← Every exhibit
The row-level forecast-error audit
| Audit field | Required question | Failure if omitted |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast object | What exactly was forecast: units, revenue, opportunities, capacity, or something else? | Unlike rows are silently combined |
| Baseline and final forecast | Was an intervention applied, and what was the untouched value? | FVA and override effects cannot be separated |
| Actual outcome | What event closed the forecast window? | Error is calculated against a moving target |
| Signed error | Which direction convention is in force? | Bias changes sign or becomes uninterpretable |
| Absolute or squared error | How large was the miss regardless of direction? | Cancellation is mistaken for accuracy |
| Horizon | How far ahead was the forecast issued? | Short and long forecasts are treated as identical |
| Denominator | What base creates the percentage comparison? | Ratios change without a visible measurement change |
| Segment and tail flag | Which rows create persistent or severe errors? | Aggregate averages erase the operational problem |
| Decision cost | What does an over- or underforecast make the organization do? | Metric improvement is mistaken for decision value |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
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