Table 41 Sept 2026From “Forecast accuracy can hide offsetting errors”

Distribution matters before the mean

Table 4Distribution matters before the mean

Set	Signed errors	Mean signed error	Mean absolute error	Shape
A	-20, +20, -20, +20	0	20	Repeated moderate miss
B	-40, 0, 0, +40	0	20	Two exact periods and two larger misses

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Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.

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From the essay

Revenue operations & AI

Forecast accuracy can hide offsetting errors

A forecast can be unbiased on average while missing every period: keep signed error, absolute error, distribution, horizon, and decision cost separate.

1 Sept 2026

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Isoglu, S. (2026). Distribution matters before the mean [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Distribution matters before the mean}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 4, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04/},
  note = {From the essay {Forecast accuracy can hide offsetting errors}}
}

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  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04.png" alt="Table 4: Distribution matters before the mean" width="3200" height="2400">
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  <figcaption>Table 4: Distribution matters before the mean. Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-forecast-accuracy-can-hide-offsetting-errors-fig04/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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