← Every exhibit
What does forecast override mean?
| Object | Meaning | Required boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline forecast | Value available before the judgmental change | System or prior forecast, version, cutoff |
| Override | Deliberate intervention between baseline and final | Signed delta, reason, information set, actor or process |
| Final forecast | Value used for the next decision or publication | Version, cutoff, unit, horizon |
| Actual outcome | Later observation used to evaluate the forecast | Actual definition, observation date, reconciliation rule |
| Forecast value added | Difference in a chosen loss measure between baseline and final | Same actual, horizon, population, and loss function |
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Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
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