Table Table 1 Growth that compounds 1 September 2026

Why does a unified customer value label conceal three distinct behavioral outcomes?

Outcome	Decision question	What can go wrong if it is used as a proxy
Next purchase	Which customers are likely to buy again within the horizon?	A purchase can be small, unprofitable, or unrelated to retention
Partial defection	Which customers may reduce their relationship or activity?	A reduced activity pattern can be missed by a binary churn label
Profitability evolution	Which customers' profit contribution may change?	Revenue or purchase count can omit cost and margin

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Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.

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One customer model cannot predict every outcome

Next purchase, partial defection, and profitability are different outcomes: choose the model and validation question before trusting one customer score.

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Isoglu, S. (2026). Why does a unified customer value label conceal three distinct behavioral outcomes? [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig01/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig01,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Why does a unified customer value label conceal three distinct behavioral outcomes?}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig01/},
  note = {From the essay {One customer model cannot predict every outcome}}
}

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