Table Figure 1 Revenue operations & AI 2 September 2026

Customer churn intervention cost and decision matrix

Proactive retention outreach carries severe unit costs for false alarms. Sleeping dogs and stable accounts must be shielded from unneeded discounting.

Classification state	Reality	Intervention	Cost profile	Customer response	Net outcome
True Positive (Saveable)	Real risk; solvable blocker.	Discovery and support fix.	High CSM labor hours.	Resolves blocker and renews.	Positive ROI: Contract saved.
True Positive (Lost Cause)	Irreversible risk (bankruptcy).	Discounts and escalations.	High labor and concessions.	Churns regardless of offer.	Negative ROI: Concessions lost.
False Positive (Stable)	Healthy account; seasonal dip.	Preemptive discount offer.	Unneeded margin loss.	Accepts unneeded discount.	Negative ROI: Margin destroyed.
False Positive (Sleeping Dog)	Inactive; inertia account.	Outreach citing low usage.	CSM outreach hours.	Cancels after wake-up call.	Severe Negative ROI: Caused churn.

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Reference & Evidence

Source: Author's commercial retention model grounded in Ascarza, Iyengar and Schleicher (2016). All figures and costs are synthetic decision benchmarks.

Each line is a claim from the register this journal publishes against, resolved from the register at build time.

A The backfire, verbatim: encouraging customers to switch to cost-minimising plans can "increase rather than decrease customer churn" Ascarza, Iyengar & Schleicher. (2016) · AIS16-C1
A The proposed mechanisms are the authors' own: the campaign increased churn "by lowering customers" inertia to switch plans and by increasing the salience of past-usage patterns Ascarza, Iyengar & Schleicher. (2016) · AIS16-C2

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

False positives in churn models have a cost

Machine learning churn models prioritize recall, but false alarms trigger unneeded discounts, wasted customer success hours, and wake-up churn effects.

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Isoglu, S. (2026). Customer churn intervention cost and decision matrix [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-false-positives-in-churn-models-have-a-cost-fig01/

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@misc{isoglu-2026-false-positives-in-churn-models-have-a-cost-fig01,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Customer churn intervention cost and decision matrix}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-false-positives-in-churn-models-have-a-cost-fig01/},
  note = {From the essay {False positives in churn models have a cost}}
}

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