Table 121 Aug 2026From “Scenario planning starts when a trigger moves a resource”

The evidence boundary around scenario planning

The table separates what the exploratory studies report from the operating mechanism a reader may still need to record.

Table 1The evidence boundary around scenario planning

Object	Status	What the evidence lets us say	What it does not let us say
Scenario planning	Source-held	It explores possible descriptions of the future and is not forecasting or prediction.	It improves performance by definition.
Water study	Source-held, exploratory	28 companies were contacted, 22 responded, and five respondents reported no use; an apparent financial signal sat beside poorer service measures.	Scenario use caused the financial or service pattern.
IT study	Source-held, exploratory	25 questionnaires returned, with 11 users and 14 non-users; the reported associations are tentative.	The comparison generalizes to other firms or proves an effect.
Trigger-to-resource link	Author framework	A named trigger and a named resource move make an operating mechanism inspectable.	Phelps et al. validated this as an intervention.
Outcome and causal interpretation	Not reported as a chain in the source	A reader can record the result and the interpretation separately.	Scenario use itself proves the result or its cause.

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Source: Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), Journal of Business Research 51(3), pp. 224–231.

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-scenario-planning-starts-when-a-trigger-moves-a-resource-fig01.png

Source and evidence

Each line names a claim related to this exhibit, its source, and how it was checked.

A PCK01-C1 The paper opens by naming the gap it works in: "little evidence is available about the effects of scenario planning on company performance"Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 224-225
A PCK01-C2 The water study is small and the paper counts it: "All 28 were asked to participate in this study. Twenty-two agreed", and "Of the 22 respondents, only five (23%) reported no use of scenario planning"Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 226-227
A PCK01-C3 The water study combines a financial measure with "three measures of performance specific to the water industry: water quality, inadequate pressure of supplies, and supply interruptions", so an apparent financial signal sits beside poorer service measuresPhelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 226-227
A PCK01-C4 The IT study is smaller still: twenty-"five questionnaires were returned. Eleven of these compa""nies (44%) were using scenario planning and 14 were not"Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 228-231
A PCK01-C5 And it grades its own conclusions: "Comparison of these studies allows some tentative conclusions regarding the effects of scenario planning to be drawn"Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), p. 231

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

From the research bench

Scenario planning starts when a trigger moves a resource

Three scenarios are not a decision. A trigger-to-resource test shows when scenario planning changes an operating choice and when it remains exploration.

21 Aug 2026

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Isoglu, S. (2026). The evidence boundary around scenario planning [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-scenario-planning-starts-when-a-trigger-moves-a-resource-fig01/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-scenario-planning-starts-when-a-trigger-moves-a-resource-fig01,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{The evidence boundary around scenario planning}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-scenario-planning-starts-when-a-trigger-moves-a-resource-fig01/},
  note = {From the essay {Scenario planning starts when a trigger moves a resource}}
}

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