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Table Table 1 From the research bench

The evidence boundary around scenario planning

The table separates what the exploratory studies report from the operating mechanism a reader may still need to record.

ObjectStatusWhat the evidence lets us sayWhat it does not let us say
Scenario planningSource-heldIt explores possible descriptions of the future and is not forecasting or prediction.It improves performance by definition.
Water studySource-held, exploratory28 companies were contacted, 22 responded, and five respondents reported no use; an apparent financial signal sat beside poorer service measures.Scenario use caused the financial or service pattern.
IT studySource-held, exploratory25 questionnaires returned, with 11 users and 14 non-users; the reported associations are tentative.The comparison generalizes to other firms or proves an effect.
Trigger-to-resource linkAuthor frameworkA named trigger and a named resource move make an operating mechanism inspectable.Phelps et al. validated this as an intervention.
Outcome and causal interpretationNot reported as a chain in the sourceA reader can record the result and the interpretation separately.Scenario use itself proves the result or its cause.

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Cite Embed

Reference & Evidence

Source: Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), Journal of Business Research 51(3), pp. 224–231.

Each line is a claim from the register this journal publishes against, resolved from the register at build time.

  • A The paper opens by naming the gap it works in: "little evidence is available about the effects of scenario planning on company performance" Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 224-225 · PCK01-C1
  • A The water study is small and the paper counts it: "All 28 were asked to participate in this study. Twenty-two agreed", and "Of the 22 respondents, only five (23%) reported no use of scenario planning" Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 226-227 · PCK01-C2
  • A The water study combines a financial measure with "three measures of performance specific to the water industry: water quality, inadequate pressure of supplies, and supply interruptions", so an apparent financial signal sits beside poorer service measures Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 226-227 · PCK01-C3
  • A The IT study is smaller still: twenty-"five questionnaires were returned. Eleven of these compa""nies (44%) were using scenario planning and 14 were not" Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), pp. 228-231 · PCK01-C4
  • A And it grades its own conclusions: "Comparison of these studies allows some tentative conclusions regarding the effects of scenario planning to be drawn" Phelps, Chan & Kapsalis (2001), p. 231 · PCK01-C5

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

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