Table 31 Sept 2026From “One customer model cannot predict every outcome”

Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?

Table 3Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?

Transfer question	Why it matters
Is the outcome defined the same way?	“Defection” and “profitability” can have different boundaries
Is the observation horizon comparable?	Short-term buying and long-term value are not interchangeable
Are the input variables available before the action?	A post-outcome signal cannot support a pre-outcome intervention
Is the cost boundary comparable?	Revenue, margin, and profit can reverse a priority
Is the decision use the same?	Prediction for triage is not prediction for treatment

Swipe or scroll horizontally if the table is wider than your screen.

Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03.png

From the essay

Growth that compounds

One customer model cannot predict every outcome

Next purchase, partial defection, and profitability are different outcomes: choose the model and validation question before trusting one customer score.

1 Sept 2026

Read the essay

This exhibit belongs to an essay: the numbers live here, the argument lives there.

Cite or embed

APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts? [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 3, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03/},
  note = {From the essay {One customer model cannot predict every outcome}}
}

Embed this exhibit

Copy this HTML to use the PNG exhibit on your site with its source line and a link back to the exhibit page.

<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03.png" alt="Table 3: Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Table 3: Which empirical transfer test must precede deploying a predictive model across cohorts?. Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-one-customer-model-cannot-predict-every-outcome-fig03/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>