← Every exhibit
Why is statistical churn probability an insufficient basis for customer retention spend?
| Object | Question | What it does not answer |
|---|---|---|
| Churn risk | How likely is the customer to leave under the stated prediction frame? | Whether an offer changes the risk |
| Response | How likely is the customer to react to an offer? | Whether the reaction creates profit |
| Incremental effect | What changes because the intervention is made rather than withheld? | Whether the change covers its cost |
| Intervention cost | What does it cost to make and deliver the offer? | Whether the customer would have stayed without it |
| Postcampaign cash flow | What financial flow remains after the intervention under the declared horizon? | Whether the customer is valuable in every future period |
| Profit lift | What incremental value remains after cost? | Whether the estimate transfers to another setting |
Swipe or scroll horizontally if the table is wider than your screen.
Reference & Evidence
Source: Table from this essay. Sources and interpretation are given in the article.
Related exhibits
-
The profit-first retention ranking card
From the essay Retention should be ranked by profit, not churn alone
-
How can marketing teams construct an auditable profit-ranked retention scorecard?
From the essay Retention should be ranked by profit, not churn alone
-
The customer churn diagnostic card
From the essay What is customer churn?