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Table Table 1 Growth that compounds

Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort

The experiment found different directions of effect by consumer cohort, with a negative aggregate return in this setting.

Consumer segmentResult in this experiment
Frequent users (at least one purchase in the prior year)No statistically measurable purchase effect
New and infrequent usersPositive and statistically significant purchase lift
Aggregate non-brand search channelNegative return in the study's aggregate calculation

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Reference & Evidence

Source: Blake et al. (2015), Econometrica 83(1).

Each line is a claim from the register this journal publishes against, resolved from the register at build time.

  • B The strongest result is stated as an extreme case, not a rule: "as an extreme case, we show that brand keyword ads have no measurable short-term bene"fits Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract · BNT15-C2
  • B Who the spend goes to: "more frequent users whose purchasing behavior is not influenced by ads account for most of the advertising expenses, resulting in average returns that are negative" Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract · BNT15-C3
  • B And the half usually dropped: "for non-brand keywords, we find that new and infrequent users are positively influenced by ads" Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract · BNT15-C4
  • B The experimental non-brand ROI, and the contrast that makes it worth quoting: OLS "which result in a ROI of over 4,100% without time and geographic controls", while "We then used our experimental methods to control for endogeneity and found a ROI of" -63%, "rejecting the hypothesis that the channel yields any short-run positive returns" Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), section 3.1 · BNT15-C5

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

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