Table 116 Aug 2026From “The incrementality illusion”

Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort

The experiment found different directions of effect by consumer cohort, with a negative aggregate return in this setting.

Cite Embed

Table 1Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort

Consumer segment	Result in this experiment
Frequent users (at least one purchase in the prior year)	No statistically measurable purchase effect
New and infrequent users	Positive and statistically significant purchase lift
Aggregate non-brand search channel	Negative return in the study's aggregate calculation

Swipe or scroll horizontally if the table is wider than your screen.

Source: Blake et al. (2015), Econometrica 83(1).

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02.png

Source and evidence

Each line names a claim related to this exhibit, its source, and how it was checked.

B BNT15-C2 The strongest result is stated as an extreme case, not a rule: "as an extreme case, we show that brand keyword ads have no measurable short-term bene"fitsBlake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract
B BNT15-C3 Who the spend goes to: "more frequent users whose purchasing behavior is not influenced by ads account for most of the advertising expenses, resulting in average returns that are negative"Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract
B BNT15-C4 And the half usually dropped: "for non-brand keywords, we find that new and infrequent users are positively influenced by ads"Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), abstract
B BNT15-C5 The experimental non-brand ROI, and the contrast that makes it worth quoting: OLS "which result in a ROI of over 4,100% without time and geographic controls", while "We then used our experimental methods to control for endogeneity and found a ROI of" -63%, "rejecting the hypothesis that the channel yields any short-run positive returns"Blake, Nosko & Tadelis (2015), section 3.1

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

Growth that compounds

The incrementality illusion

Why attribution dashboards can report phantom returns while holdout tests find little or no lift, and how to size causal measurement.

16 Aug 2026

Read the essay

This exhibit belongs to an essay: the numbers live here, the argument lives there.

Cite or embed

APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort [Table]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Table 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {The incrementality illusion}}
}

Embed this exhibit

Copy this HTML to use the PNG exhibit on your site with its source line and a link back to the exhibit page.

<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02.png" alt="Table 1: Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Table 1: Non-brand search effectiveness by consumer cohort. Source: Blake et al. (2015), Econometrica 83(1). <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-the-incrementality-illusion-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>