Figure 17 Aug 2026From “The integration plan spends what the deal bought.”

The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative

Across 93 studies, the acquirer's measured return starts at 0.09 on announcement day and drifts to −0.10 by three years. A base rate computed on share prices: it never observed the commercial decisions in front of you.

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Figure 1The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative

Source: King, Dalton, Daily & Covin (2004), Table 1: estimated population correlations with acquirer abnormal returns, 26 to 127 effect sizes per window, n up to 28,016, across 93 studies. Day 0 and the three windows from 22–180 days onward are significant; days 1–5 and 6–21 are not. Outcomes are the market's verdict on the buyer: nothing here observed retention or cross-sell.

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A KDDC04-C1 Across the meta-analysis, "acquiring firms' performance does not positively change as a function of their acquisition activity, and is negatively affected to a modest extent" (p. 187, abstract)King, Dalton, Daily & Covin (2004) · VoR held, Marquette deposit of the typeset article
A KDDC04-C4 Acquirer abnormal returns by event window (estimated population r): Day 0 0.09\\\ (127 effect sizes, n = 28,016) · Days 1–5 0.01 (114; 19,269) · Days 6–21 −0.02 (54; 8,548) · Days 22–180 −0.06\\\ (64; 5,698) · 180 days to 3 years −0.10\\\ (103; 25,205) · beyond 3 years −0.07\\\ (26; 5,966) (Table 1)King, Dalton, Daily & Covin (2004) · VoR held, Marquette deposit of the typeset article

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

Go-to-market strategy

The integration plan spends what the deal bought.

Integration depth buys cost savings by spending market position. The measured record prices that trade, and says its sign is not fixed.

7 Aug 2026

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig02/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 1, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {The integration plan spends what the deal bought.}}
}

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    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig02.png" alt="Figure 1: The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative" width="3200" height="2400">
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  <figcaption>Figure 1: The base rate, drawn: acquirer returns drift negative. Source: King, Dalton, Daily &amp; Covin (2004), Table 1: estimated population correlations with acquirer abnormal returns, 26 to 127 effect sizes per window, n up to 28,016, across 93 studies. Day 0 and the three windows from 22–180 days onward are significant; days 1–5 and 6–21 are not. Outcomes are the market&#39;s verdict on the buyer: nothing here observed retention or cross-sell. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-integration-spends-what-the-deal-bought-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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