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Figure 2From “A flat rate buys your customer’s worst month.”

Same average, different tail

Every participant saw the same 500-hour average; only the spread differed. With the bigger spike, 89% took the flat rate at equal cost; without it, 56%, indistinguishable from a coin flip. The marked row is the tail doing the selecting.

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Figure 2Same average, different tail

At the same 500-hour average usage, 56% chose the flat rate when the range was 100 to 600 hours, versus 89% when the range was 400 to 900 hours: the spike, not the average, drives the preference.20%40%60%80%100%Usage range 100 to 600 hours56%Usage range 400 to 900 hours89%Chose the flat rate at equal cost (%)

Source: Kienzler, Kowalkowski & Kindström (2021), Study 2, p. 408; n = 145, scenario-based. Every participant saw the same 500-hour average; only the bounds varied. The contrast is tested across the whole sample: chi-squared(1, N = 145) = 9.51, p < .01; logistic B = 1.19, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.98.

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  • A KKK21-C3 Only the bounds varied: "All participants saw the same past average monthly usage (500 h), but the minimum and maximum usage values were varied to create two conditions (100 and 600 h versus 400 and 900 h, respectively)", and "Participants in the equal condition (89%) were significantly more likely than chance to choose the flat rate when past usage indicated upper bound extremes", while "However, this was not the case (56%) when past usage information indicated lower bound extremes"Kienzler, Kowalkowski & Kindström (2021), Journal of Business Research 132, 403–415 · VoR held
  • A KKK21-C4 The spread contrast holds across the whole sample of 145: χ²(1, N = 145) = 9.51, p < .01; logistic B = 1.19, 95% CI [0.39, 1.98]. In the authors' own words, with a premium "the flat rate’s choice share decreased, but it increased with upper bound extremes", and the estimate comes from "A binary logistic regression with two dummy- coded independent variables"Kienzler, Kowalkowski & Kindström (2021), Journal of Business Research 132, 403–415 · VoR held

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). Same average, different tail [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{Same average, different tail}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 2, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {A flat rate buys your customer’s worst month.}}
}
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  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02.png" alt="Figure 2: Same average, different tail" width="3200" height="2400">
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  <figcaption>Figure 2: Same average, different tail. Source: Kienzler, Kowalkowski &amp; Kindström (2021), Study 2, p. 408; n = 145, scenario-based. Every participant saw the same 500-hour average; only the bounds varied. The contrast is tested across the whole sample: chi-squared(1, N = 145) = 9.51, p &lt; .01; logistic B = 1.19, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.98. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-a-flat-rate-buys-the-worst-month-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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