Figure 1From “Market prioritisation is a portfolio decision, not a TAM ranking”
The market-prioritisation gate sequence
The next commitment is a gate sequence, not a permanent winner: screen, learn, commit, constrain, then stop or redirect when the declared condition fails.
Figure 1The market-prioritisation gate sequence
Source: Author's synthesis grounded in Goodman (1972), Natarajarathinam and Nepal (2012), Waheeduzzaman (2008), Bruna (2024), and Klinger (1977). Bar heights are ordinal sequence positions defined by the author, from 1 for the first gate to 5 for the final disposition; they are not market values, performance measures, probabilities, or rankings.
Source and evidence
Each line names a claim related to this exhibit, its source, and how it was checked.
- B MSB27-C1 Goodman's own distinction: market potential is a measure "of an environmental state at a point in time (present or future)", whereas "sales forecasts are measures of expectation which are conditional upon inputs of the various marketing decision variables", and "it is usually necessary to rely on proxy data for most of the things a marketer would like to measure"Goodman. (1972)
- B MSB27-C2 The three stages are the paper's own: "The first step assesses the broad market potential of a country; the second step estimates the sales potential for a specific company, and the third step calculates return on investment for the company based on the resources required"Natarajarathinam & Nepal. (2012)
- B MSB27-C3 And each stage carries different conditions: "Each step of the methodology accounts for several external and internal factors", demonstrated on "An example of a fastener manufacturer targeting the Mexican market is used to demonstrate the applic"ation, so it is one worked case and not a formulaNatarajarathinam & Nepal. (2012)
- B MSB27-C4 The four criteria are the paper's own: Table 1 "provides an evaluation of the methods on the basis of four criteria, viz., precision, prediction, price, and pragmatism"Waheeduzzaman. (2008)
- B MSB27-C5 The methodological verdict is the paper's own: "The paper concludes that using a single rule to proxy Internal Market Potential in the same way for any sample is a bad methodology", on "For a sample of European regions, the paper concludes that the literature should be more explicit about historical processes of agglomeration"Bruna. (2024)
- B MSB27-C6 TAM, SAM, and SOM are useful labels only when their market boundary, unit, date, serviceability, and scenario assumptions are explicitAuthor framework in the market-allocation ledger
- B MSB27-C7 A budget decision requires a visible resource requirement, investment horizon, outcome, and downside case after market and firm reach are statedAuthor framework grounded in the cited market-potential sources
Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.
From the essay
Go-to-market strategy
Market prioritisation is a portfolio decision, not a TAM ranking
The largest market is not automatically first. Compare market potential, firm fit, investment burden, learning value, and reversibility.
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