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Figure 3From “What is the synthetic control method?”

A synthetic control study record

Fix the unit, the start, the donor pool, the predictors and the fit before reading the outcome. Then record the placebo runs and the statement they support.

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Figure 3A synthetic control study record

A six-column worksheet for a synthetic control study: the treated unit and start date, the donor pool and exclusions, the predictors and pre-period fit, the interference check, the placebo ranking, and the supported statement.Unit and startWhich unit wastreated, and whencould it firstreact?Donor poolWhich units, andwhich were excludedfor similarchanges?Predictors and fitWhich pre-periodvalues, and howclose is the fit?InterferenceCould the changereach any donorunit?Placebo runsWhere does thepost/pre errorratio rank amongplacebo runs?SupportedstatementEffect, no cleareffect, or nousable fit?If the pre-period fit is poor, the record ends there. A gap after a poor fit is not an estimate.

Source: Author's decision worksheet. The fields follow Abadie et al. (2010), pp. 494-503, on the donor pool, predictors, fit, interference, anticipation and placebo inference, and Abadie and Cattaneo (2018), pp. 483 and 485. The fields are reader inputs; no company data is supplied.

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From the essay

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). A synthetic control study record [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03/

BibTeX
@misc{isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{A synthetic control study record}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 3, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03/},
  note = {From the essay {What is the synthetic control method?}}
}
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<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03.png" alt="Figure 3: A synthetic control study record" width="3200" height="2400">
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  <figcaption>Figure 3: A synthetic control study record. Source: Author&#39;s decision worksheet. The fields follow Abadie et al. (2010), pp. 494-503, on the donor pool, predictors, fit, interference, anticipation and placebo inference, and Abadie and Cattaneo (2018), pp. 483 and 485. The fields are reader inputs; no company data is supplied. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-the-synthetic-control-method-fig03/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
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