Figure 218 Oct 2026From “What is regression to the mean?”

A regression check for a flagged group

Write down the selection, the baselines, the comparison, the expected change, the observed change and the adjusted effect before crediting the action.

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Figure 2A regression check for a flagged group

Source: Author's decision worksheet. The selection and baselines fields follow Barnett et al. (2005), pp. 216 to 218; the comparison and expected fields follow Barnett et al. (2005), p. 217; the adjusted field follows Barnett et al. (2005), pp. 218 and 219. Applying it to sales or account data is this guide's reasoning. The fields are reader inputs; no company data is supplied.

PNG4:3, 1600 × 1200, with the title, the source line and the attribution set in the image isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02.png

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Each line names a claim related to this exhibit, its source, and how it was checked.

B RGM-OWN-C4 Figure 2's record (selection, baselines, comparison group, expected change, observed change, adjusted effect), whose questions are drawn from Barnett et al.'s remedies, and the illustrations: forty account executives ranked on one quarter's bookings, the bottom ten coached and the top ten given an award, whose next-quarter moves are expected from regression alone if quarterly bookings correlate well below one and spread about as widely (G5 F1); a cleaner design that coaches a randomly chosen half of those who qualify first, selects on two or more quarters and analyses with prior bookings as a covariate; the same record for an account flagged after a fall in orders; hypothetical, no company data, untested.Author worksheet grounded in BVD05-C6 to BVD05-C9 and KT73-C8; untested

Grades: A, verified against the printed page of the primary source · B, primary source, text layer only · C, authoritative secondary · D, reported.

From the essay

From the research bench

What is regression to the mean?

Regression to the mean: after an extreme measurement, the next tends to be less extreme. In a group chosen for that extreme, it can look like real change.

18 Oct 2026

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APA 7

Isoglu, S. (2026). A regression check for a flagged group [Figure]. isoglu.com. https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02/

BibTeX

@misc{isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02,
  author = {Isoglu, Sinan},
  title = {{A regression check for a flagged group}},
  year = {2026},
  howpublished = {Figure 2, isoglu.com},
  url = {https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02/},
  note = {From the essay {What is regression to the mean?}}
}

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<figure>
  <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02/">
    <img src="https://isoglu.com/social/isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02.png" alt="Figure 2: A regression check for a flagged group" width="3200" height="2400">
  </a>
  <figcaption>Figure 2: A regression check for a flagged group. Source: Author&#39;s decision worksheet. The selection and baselines fields follow Barnett et al. (2005), pp. 216 to 218; the comparison and expected fields follow Barnett et al. (2005), p. 217; the adjusted field follows Barnett et al. (2005), pp. 218 and 219. Applying it to sales or account data is this guide&#39;s reasoning. The fields are reader inputs; no company data is supplied. <a href="https://isoglu.com/insights/exhibits/isoglu-2026-what-is-regression-to-the-mean-fig02/">View exhibit</a>.</figcaption>
</figure>