Ein Blatt für eine Referenzklassenprognose

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• B RCF-OWN-C3 A reference class forecast is written down as one record: the decision, the inside view figure and how it was built, the class with its sources and inclusion rule, the distribution in a size-free unit such as actual over plan, the evidence for placing the case above or below the class middle, and the forecast at the certainty the decision needs; two separate questions: the certainty the decision needs sets which percentile is read, and the position field shifts the case within the class only on evidence and in either direction, after Flyvbjerg's rule on lower and higher uplifts (revised after G5 F1, which found the worksheet footer one-sided and in conflict with the illustration); illustrated with a hypothetical add-on whose first-year bookings plan is set against the ratio of actual to plan in the firm's own and, where available, other firms' launches, using a low percentile for a revenue figure (a shortfall risk) and the median for a portfolio, a shift toward the plan figure if the team's past launches came closer to their plans than those in the class and further below it if they fell further short, a note when the class is small or recalled from memory (which may come out small and favourable, as in Lovallo et al.'s questionnaire), and both figures kept for a later comparison with the actual. Untested.Author worksheet grounded in FLY08-C3, FLY08-C4, KL93-C1, KL93-C6 and LCC12-C2

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