Das synthetische Forecast-Override-Prüfregister

Jede Zeile nennt eine Aussage zu dieser Abbildung, ihre Quelle und die Art ihrer Prüfung.

• A FGLN09-C1 The dataset is counted in the paper: "we collected data on more than 60 000 forecasts and outcomes from four supply chain companies", 68,984 complete triples in Table 1, and "in three of the companies on average judgmental adjustments increased accuracy"Fildes, Goodwin, Lawrence & Nikolopoulos (2009), abstract and Table 1
• A FGLN09-C3 Upward adjustments were more likely to damage accuracy than downward adjustmentsFildes, Goodwin, Lawrence & Nikolopoulos (2009), section 4.1
• A FGBD25-C1 A "combined dataset of 147,131 forecasts" and actuals, "obtained from 10 organizations with 22 business units"Fildes, Goodwin & De Baets. (2025)
• A FGBD25-C2 "Six datasets were used in this study", and the unit is a triple: "weekly or monthly statistical systems forecasts; the final forecasts, which may be the same as the system forecast or adjusted; and the corresponding actual outcomes for each SKU", with "we consider only one-step-ahead forecasts"Fildes, Goodwin & De Baets. (2025)
• B V05-OWN-C1 A forecast override is a recorded change from a baseline or system forecast to a final forecast at a declared cutoffAuthor framework grounded in FGLN09-C1 and FGBD25-C1
• B V05-OWN-C2 The override is a data intervention that must preserve baseline, final value, signed delta, reason, information available, and later actualAuthor operating framework
• B V05-OWN-C3 Override magnitude is final forecast minus baseline forecast under the declared unit and scaleAuthor formula set
• B V05-OWN-C7 The six-row override audit is synthetic and contains no company forecast, seller judgment, customer demand, or observed accuracy resultAuthor synthetic object

Prüfgrade: A, gegen die gedruckte Seite der Primärquelle geprüft · B, Primärquelle, nur Textebene · C, belastbare Sekundärquelle · D, berichtet.

Diese Abbildung gehört zu einem Essay: Die Zahlen stehen hier, das Argument dort.