Market intelligence
Turning a hunch into a forecast.
Competitor and trend tracking, plus the financial modelling that turned a hunch into a revenue forecast — the read that made a bet an informed one.
What it turned on
Intelligence was only worth gathering when it changed a decision. Tracking competitors and trends fed one thing — the model that said what a move was worth before anyone committed to it. The discipline was in throwing away the signals that were interesting but decision-irrelevant, which was most of them.
How it went
Four moves, in order.
Watching the few real signals
Competitors, pricing, demand shifts — the handful that actually moved a decision.
Modelling the money
Turning the signal into a revenue and cost picture someone could argue with.
Stress-testing the bet
What had to be true for it to work, and what would break it.
Making the call
Translating it into a recommendation, with the uncertainty left in.
Contact
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Research, a guest lecture, or a question worth thinking about. A few lines is enough to start.
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